How The Battery Revolution Will Power Our Future

 U.S. President Joe Biden has made batteries a critical component of his carbon-neutral strategy. He insists on American production of modern batteries rather than relying on imports from China. Chinese companies, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), BYD Auto, and Hefei Guoxuan High-Tech produce 79 percent of the world's batteries. American manufacturers make only seven percent. 

According to innovator Elon Musk, batteries are the key to our future. Their development led to the technical revolution that brought smartphones, tablets, and electric vehicles to the world. Therefore, it is surprising that the science behind the lithium-ion batteries driving the modern world has remained essentially unchanged for more than three decades. 

The prototypes of lithium-ion batteries appeared in the 1980s. Then the physicist John Goodenough suggested using lithium cobaltite in batteries. In 2019, he received the Nobel Prize for his idea. 

A BloombergNEF study found that the average price of lithium-ion batteries fell from $688 to $137 per kilowatt-hour between 2013 and 2020. They predict that by 2023 prices will be close to $100 per kWh. The average price of batteries for electric vehicles (EV) was $126 per kWh. Thus, the cost of the battery pack in the total vehicle price dropped to 21 percent. By 2030, due to new technological advances, the cost of batteries can drop to $58 per kWh. 

However, lithium-ion batteries have serious disadvantages. Among them are a high fire hazard, sensitivity to temperature differences, self-discharge, and aging. Many still remember the story of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 series smartphones that suddenly caught fire. It is this property that prompted airlines to require the carriage of lithium-ion batteries exclusively in carry-on baggage. Another liability is that lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles contain hundreds of kilograms of metals and materials such as graphite, cobalt, and high-purity nickel. When mined and processed, it can cause significant pollution and increase carbon dioxide emissions. 

For example, an average battery of a light EV requires about 20 kg of nickel and up to 20 kg of cobalt in the cathode. Of the metals used, nickel is critical as it helps the batteries store more energy and reduces the need for the more expensive cobalt. Tesla accounted for more than half of all nickel used in the European electric vehicle industry last year, and Musk selects its supply as a concern. Tesla plans to produce three terawatt-hour batteries by 2030, which will deplete most of the world's nickel production at current levels. 

According to Fastmarkets, cobalt prices, as the world's most expensive metal, rose to $42 per kg in March 2021. Analysts predict that by the end of 2021, they will reach $57, and in 2024 they will reach $80. The primary deposits of cobalt are located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

Therefore, it is not surprising that companies are actively developing new types of batteries. For example, General Motors (GM) has partnered with SolidEnergy Systems to manufacture Ultium batteries for its electric vehicles. These will include a liquid electrolyte, graphite-based anodes, and cathodes with a mix of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and aluminum. As a result, the price of batteries will drop by 50-60 percent, and their weight will decrease. As a result, GM expects to reduce the cost of storing 1 kWh of electricity from $150 to $100 by 2025. 

More and more electric vehicles in China use alternative lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. They are cheaper and less toxic but have a lower capacity. Such batteries are developed by Tesla Model 3, the Chinese automaker BYD, and Volkswagen. But so far, LFP batteries account for only 14 percent of the market, and by 2030 this figure will be from 15 to 20 percent. 

Tesla and Volkswagen are also promising to cut cobalt use in the coming years. Last year Elon Musk held a special online presentation called Tesla Battery Day. He announced that Tesla would begin mass production of a new generation of batteries that will be much more powerful and durable than the current ones within three years and cost half the $25,000. Tesla's new 4680 battery pack will be six times more potent than its predecessors and five times more energy-efficient. Moreover, its size will be only 46x80 mm.

Lithium-ion batteries' severe flaws and shortcomings make it understandable for the excitation around radically new ways to develop solid-state batteries. The technology will use solid electrodes and a solid electrolyte instead of the liquid or polymer gel electrolytes found in lithium-ion batteries. Radically new technology promises to address many of these environmental and safety concerns. 

In addition, this innovative generation power supply will store energy at a much higher density. Electrolytes also serve as a battery separator, a vital component of a lithium-ion battery, reducing the risk of fire and the number of raw materials needed. 

The pursuit of shorter charging times and longer mileage without increasing the cost of battery packs and the risk of fire are the most striking improvement trends in modern batteries. Removing these limitations is key to making the battery revolution genuinely irreversible. 

 

There is something to be said about the different kind of energy storage - thermal energy storage, particularly those using phase-change materials (PCM).  They don't suffer practically any of the problems which plaque electrical batteries - they are completely fire-safe (the most of their content is water), the number of charge-discharge cycles is unlimited, and the depth of discharge does not affect their efficiency. It makes them a perfect addition to the solar thermal systems (STS) which also do not use rare metals and therefore not subject of the same supply bottleneck that PV and computer chips are.

 

Autonomous Mobile Energy System (AMES) developed by Ascent Systems Technologies implements an optimal combination of both PV-battery and STC-PCM. All controlled by a smart control system using machine learning software. It works as a self-charging energy storage and provides uninterrupted source of clean energy with no fuel or connection to the power grid.

 

Blackouts Cascade Beyond Texas in Deepening Power Crisis

 

Blackouts triggered by frigid weather are spreading across the central U.S. and into Mexico as an energy crisis that’s already brought Texas’s power grid to its knees deepens.

As more than 2 million homes in Texas are already without power, the operator of an grid spanning 14 states from North Dakota to Oklahoma ordered utilities to start rotating outages to protect the system from failing amid surging demand for electricity. The outages have also spread into Mexico.

“In our history as a grid operator, this is an unprecedented event,” the grid operator, called the Southwest Power Pool, said in a statement Monday.

The brutal cold striking Texas -- ironically the capital of the U.S. energy industry and home of some of the world’s largest oil and gas companies -- is emblematic of a world facing more unpredictable weather due to the rising impact of climate change. The outages underscore how as the globe moves away from fossil fuels into an all-electrified system that relies more and more on renewable energy, the grid becomes more vulnerable too.

(How long are we going to wait to realize that we need get rid of centralized grids and pipelines? Isn't time to move to the decentralized distributed autonomous energy?)

Such weather conditions are very rare in much of Texas, and they have unleashed chaos on the ground. In Houston, the state’s largest city, roads are iced over and there are long lines to refill household propane canisters. Firewood is selling out.

Besides the human impact, the cold is wreaking havoc on the energy industry itself. Oil production in the Permian has dropped by 1 million barrels a day, helping U.S. crude prices to trade above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than year. The region’s industrial plants built to cope torrid summers rather than arctic weather, and the biggest U.S. oil refinery went offline on Monday, reducing the supply of gasoline and other fuels.

Large swaths of Dallas, Houston and other cities have been plunged into darkness as extreme cold and surging demand for heat pushes generators to the brink. The outages began as controlled, rolling power cuts but have cascaded into prolonged blackouts in some areas.

(If we wouldn't rely on the centralized grid and the pipe with gas, that wouldn't happen. Even if energy would be lost in some places, those would be localized and not cause a cascade effect!)

“We anticipate we will need to continue these controlled outages for the rest of today and perhaps all day tomorrow,” Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which managed the state’s power grid, said during a briefing Monday.

In Mexico, at least 400,000 homes, businesses and other users lost power as the cold in Texas triggered a natural gas shortage and forced power plants offline. About 60% of those impacted had their power restored by midday, according to the grid operator, Cenace.

In the last six months, extreme temperatures have led to rolling blackouts in the two most populous U.S. states. In August, California grid operators shut off power when record heat push demand beyond capacity, and now Texas’ record cold has led to the same result.

The extreme cold appears to have caught Texas’s highly decentralized electricity market by surprise. Power plants with a combined capacity of more than 34 gigawatts were forced offline overnight, including nuclear reactors, coal and gas generators and wind farms, Woodfin said. It’s not clear why, he added.

Wind power in particular appears to have been a major victim of the weather conditions, with turbine blades rendered inoperable due to ice, a phenomenon that reduces efficiency can ultimately stop them from spinning. Wind generation has more than halved to 4.2 gigawatts.

(Usually birds and bats are the victims of wind turbines. Wind power must be a victim, as icing presents a danger for equipment and people. Moreover, even short operation with iced blades will require their replacement if not immediately, but much sooner than it would be needed otherwise, completely cancelling the promise of wind turbine efficiency. This is of course the most serious concern for large grid-connected wind farms.)

Power is going to continue to be cut across the state through Monday and potentially into Tuesday morning until enough generators come back online, Woodfin said.

“Every grid operator and every electric company is fighting to restore power right now,” said Bill Magness, head of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the state’s grid.

These are the first rolling blackouts caused by cold weather since 2011 in Texas. Spikes in electricity demand usually happen in summer in Texas when air conditioning use rises. A loss of frequency on the grid has caused 30 gigawatts of generation to halt. Many stations will have been undergoing scheduled maintenance, leaving the grid more exposed during unusually large spikes in demand.

Parts of Texas were colder than Alaska, according to the National Weather Service. The temperature at 5 a.m. in Houston was 18 degrees Fahrenheit (-7.8 degrees Celsius), matching the reading in Anchorage. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area it was 5 degrees Fahrenheit (-15 degrees Celsius).

Frigid temperatures and a parade of storms in the U.S. follow other instances of extreme winter weather this year that have snarled ports and upended energy markets in Asia and Europe. Texas, which isn’t accustomed to winter’s full fury, is getting a big taste. President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency, mobilizing federal assistance to aid local response efforts.

Power crunch

The average spot price for power across the Texas grid hit the state’s $9,000 per megawatt-hour price cap shortly after 9:30 a.m. local time. LNG exports from the U.S. also plummeted after the freeze shut ports and wells, and oil production also took a hit, with Permian oil production plunging by as much as one million barrels a day. West Texas Intermediate futures rose by as much as 2.5%, above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year.

The cut to crude supplies is threatening to unleash a rush for everything from propane to heating oil, fuels that are used in mobile heating devices.

Odessa in West Texas, one of the largest cities in the Permian Basin, still has power, but San Antonio has lost power with rolling blackouts lasting 10-15 minutes, according to sources on the ground.

Houston may pick up as much as 2 inches (5 centimeters) of snow overnight, along with ice and sleet, the National Weather Service said. It will get hit by another storm bringing ice and freezing rain Wednesday.

“It is going to be a cold week,” said David Roth, a senior branch forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center. “The southern plains are in a cold pattern and it is going to take a while for them to break out of it.”

------------------

Autonomous on-site energy generation and storage is clearly a way out of this kind of crises which are going to be more frequent and more severe with the global climate change that is happening.

Original source: bloomberg.com (highlighted text is mine)

New Types of Hybrid Collectors Redefine Solar Energy

Let me start by saying that there has been no new energy science since the 1800’s.

Don't believe? 

Electric Heating (Heat-pumps) are on the market since the 1860’s when they were first used for drying rice. The Carnot cycle used in Heat Pumps to increase efficiency is now over 150 years old.

Solar Hot Water is on the market since the 1890’s when the California Lightbox company launched the first products and are a simple box with a glass sheet using the “greenhouse effect” to trap heat. The greenhouse effect only operates efficiently in sunshine hence the poor performance of solar hot water panels unless you have sunshine.

Solar PV was possible thanks to the the photovoltaic effect discovered by Edmond Becquerel in 1839, 6 years before the Irish famine. We also had no telephones, electricity, cars, bicycle, locks, pasteurization or even toilet paper at this time. The word “scientist” was only coined for the first time by William Whewell in 1834, five years earlier.

Just to highlight how long ago that was, the First and the Second Laws of Thermodynamics were first stated around 1850, and it was in the early 1900’s before the 2nd law of Thermodynamics was proven and accepted. The third law of Thermodynamics was developed between 1906 and 1912 by chemist Walther Nernst. The Zeroth law of thermodynamics is attributed to Ralph H Fowler around 1935, a British scientist. Bizarrely, this means that most of the laws of physics based on heat science are newer than all our existing renewable heating technologies (solar panels & heat pumps).

Nanotechnology only emerged in the 1980’s and is one of the world’s most powerful advances in science and engineering.

It is ironic that much of the basic Thermodynamic science laws and developments have occurred “since” these old renewable “products” have been in existence.

You may be surprised, even shocked at how long ago many of what you may think are brand new energy technologies were invented…

• 2000BC – Chinese first use coal for heating and cooking
• 200BC – Chinese use natural gas to dry salt
• 200BC – Europeans build the first wind mills
• 32AD – Chinese refine petroleum from oil seepages
• 1590 – Dutch developed large scale wind mills
• 1700 – Coal becomes dominant energy source
• 1712 – First steam engines
• 1800 – Discovery of the electrolysis process and an important step in the development of hydrogen energy
• 1812 – First natural gas well drilled in the US
• 1830 – Ethanol displaces whale oil as primary lamp fuel and is patented by S. Casey in 1834
• 1837 – First electric car built by Robert Davidson of Aberdeen
• 1838 – First Hydrogen Fuel Cell created to generate electricity by a Welsh Lawyer
• 1839 – First discovery of the solar photovoltaic effect in materials
• 1850 – Windmills dot the US landscape to pump water and are still in use today
• 1860 – First Solar powered parabolic collector developed to replace coal fueled steam power
• 1863 – Heat Pumps enter use and used to dry rice
• 1888 – First electric Wind Turbine in Ohio produces lighting for 350 lightbulbs and 3 motors with battery storage

• 1890 – Rudolf Diesel creates the biodiesel engine to run on peanut oil to replace steam engines
• 1891 – First solar Hot Water collectors launched
• 1905 – Ethanol goes to war with new petroleum fuels
• 1908 – Ford launch the Model T flexi-fuel vehicle that ran on 100% ethanol or 100% petrol
• 1920 – Modern oil and gas boilers developed

From 1908 to current day, nuclear power is the only new science created in energy innovation as petrochemical took off in 1906 and killed all energy science.

Finally, there are some real advancements in this area.

The HONE 501 TE (Thermal-Electric) 5th Generation Renewable Energy collector is based on a modern nanotechnology breakthrough. These units form a core part of a singular natural science heat engine (system) which uses daylight as the fuel source. The HONE 501 TE creates high temperature renewable heat and electricity all in one unit, the only system of this type in the world certified to achieve this. This advanced solar technology became possible only due to the new science developments in the last 20 years. Nanotechnology is used in many modern products such as Lithium-Ion Batteries, (the reason your mobile phone is so small and the Electric Vehicle is possible).

 

Another development is an example of engineering ingenuity. Naked Energy Virtu PVT is the world's first solar PVT vacuum tube, producing both electricity and heating. Virtu is a compact, high energy density, renewable energy solution. 

Virtu PVT provides heat and power in one modular product. Virtu saves up to 3x more carbon and generates up to 3x the savings when compared to traditional solar PV for the same given area. It can be easily installed on and can be invisible on a flat roof. Alternatively can be installed on a vertical wall for a highly visual architectural design.

Incidentally, both HONE 501 and Naked Energy Virtu are British products. It remains to be seen who will lead the race.