Wednesday, July 22, 2020

What's the Worst That Could Happen?

    On September 2nd 1859 C.F. Herbert, prospecting for gold in south-eastern Australia, saw something sublime in the evening sky. “A scene of almost unspeakable beauty presented itself, lights of every imaginable colour were issuing from the southern heavens,” he would later recall. “The rationalist and pantheist saw nature in her most exquisite robes. The superstitious and the fanatical had dire forebodings, and thought it a foreshadowing of Armageddon and final dissolution".
    Those who saw cataclysm  in the auroral display were not exactly wrong: just ahead of their time. The Carrington event, as the geomagnetic storm Herbert observed came to be known, was the result of 100 megatonnes of charged particles thrown off by the Sun a few hours earlier slamming into Earth's magnetosphere, a protective magnetic sheath generated by currents in the planet's liquid core. The electromagnetic effects of the onslaught did not just produce  a truly spectacular display of the Southern Lights (and the Northern ones, too, visible as far south as Colombia). They induced powerful currents in any electrical conductors to hand. Some telegraph networks took on a life of their own!..
    Such effects mattered little at the time light bulb was 20 years inn the future. In today's ubiquitously, fundamentally and increasingly electrified world a "coronal mass ejection" (CME) as large as that of the Carrington event could cause all kinds of chaos. Induced currents would topple electrical grids. Satellites would have their circuitry fried and possibly be dragged by the outer atmosphere bloated by the storm's energy. A slight foretaste of what might come we had in 1989 when Quebec's grid was knocked out by a storm many hundreds times less in severity than the Carrington event.
    When the next big one comes is hard to predict but that it will eventually come is beyond the debate. Solar physicists put the odds of a Carrington level geomagnetic storm some time in the next ten years at around one in ten (!) 
    The most devastating effect of a really large CME would be on the transformers in electrical grids: gigantic, purpose-built machines that step voltage down between the long-range transmission grid and the distribution grid which runs lower-voltage power into homes, businesses and hospitals. Strong enough induced currents will damage those transformers beyond repair. Because it typically takes between six and 12 months to get a replacement transformer made - and only a few countries have the industrial capacity to make them - that could have many grids crippled for a long time. "If you simultaneously lose the ability to pump water, to pump fuel, to communicate and lose eyes in the sky, yu pretty quickly get into territory that's never really been explored before", says Dan Baker, the director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
    Geomagnetic storms, as devastating as they could be. are only a subset of all events found in the historical and geological record that present plausible threat s of catastrophe. Giant volcanic eruptions, powerful earthquakes, tsunamis and really strong hurricanes are just some examples of others. Frequency and magnitude of disastrous events shows a tendency to increase.

   
                        Credit: Swiss Re/Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute   

Everything in our modern world relies on energy, mostly electricity. Just because we came to depend heavily, or rather critically, on the power grids providing energy, any of such events would leave many thousands, potentially millions, of people without energy, water, food and communication for extended period of time, leading to many lives lost and causing huge economic damage. Does it have to be that way? Can it be done differently? Yes, with distributed energy generation.
Clean energy can be produced where is needed, without the need to transmit it across countries and continents. This would minimize the footprint, eliminate huge inefficiencies, dramatically increase reliability and avoid a domino effect of failing power grids.
Moreover, the energy generation and storage system does not have to be permanently attached to one location. Meet the Autonomous Mobile Energy System (AMES) developed by Ascent Systems Technologies.



AMES is a self-contained module that fits into a standard shipping container and can be delivered on demand to any geographical location in the world. Rapidly deployed, it provides an uninterrupted source of clean energy without requiring any fuel supply or connection to the power grid. AMES combines several advanced technologies in one integrated and seamlessly operating system. The brain of the module is Ascent's proprietary configuration and adaptive control software combining model-predictive approach with a novel machine learning technique.


The module will be invaluable in situations such as disaster relief efforts and humanitarian missions. It can also serve remote communities, mining operations, research stations, field hospitals and many other applications providing critical energy security while protecting the environment. Multiple modules deployed in the area or even at different geographical locations are connected via smart network for environment monitoring and continuous performance optimization. Welcome to the future of energy!




Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Negative Oil Prices in North America

From The Board Conference of Canada

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sold for as low as negative US$40.32 per barrel on April 20th as the contract period for May deliveries neared expiration and oil traders were forced to unload contracts for barrels they did not want to take possession of. The rampant selloff of May contracts signals that inventories are filling quickly—a factor that will keep oil prices low even when demand begins to accelerate. The June differential between WTI and Canadian heavy crude narrowed from US$14 to US$11 per barrel, an improvement to prior weeks, as Canadian producers have started to significantly scale back their output with demand in freefall. With storage capacity becoming more limited and demand expected to remain suppressed over the coming weeks, the price for June contracts has also started to slide, dipping below US$15 per barrel this morning.

 Oil wells at sunset

 

  • West Texas Intermediate went for a record-setting negative US$40.32 per barrel for May deliveries on April 20th as traders rushed to offload contracts for barrels they did not actually want to receive.
  • Oil producers in Canada began the week facing record low prices for front-month contracts. Western Canada Select (WCS) at one point in the day traded for negative US$62.57 per barrel.
  • With a large portion of North America on lockdown and airline companies suspending flights, refineries have significantly cut back the production of gasoline and jet fuel, and thus demand for crude oil.
  • The damage brought on by yesterday’s selling frenzy will be somewhat limited, given the fact that most of the oil being traded on the market today is under contract for June and July. Oil traders that made speculative purchases for contracts in May were left panicked as experts warned that U.S. inventories could be completely full by the end of May, as oil producers defer costly shut ins in the face of declining refinery demand.
  • The OPEC+ group, which includes core members and additional oil-exporting countries such as Russia, agreed to cut a record 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of oil production for the months of May and June. While this represents a historic effort to bring balance to an oversupplied market, world demand for oil is estimated to have fallen by up to 30 million b/d.
  • Production cuts in Western Canada have hitherto lagged the drop in refinery demand in the United States, where over 95 per cent of Canada’s oil and gas exports are destined for each year. This is in large part due to the nature of mining operations on Alberta’s oil patch.
  • Oil sands producers in Alberta can’t easily turn on and off production, leaving them at a big disadvantage during oil price crashes. Surface mines incur large fixed costs in order to get them up and running and require constant production to remain profitable. Furthermore, shutting them down and booting them back up is a lengthy and costly endeavor. In situ mines require a constant flow of pressurized steam once they have been tapped; cutting off the flow of steam can result in permanent damage to the reservoir and restarting production can be cumbersome and costly. 
Do we still want to get more oil out of Alberta oil sands and continue damage the nature?
Do we still want to build new pipelines diverting billions of dollars from the real investment in the future?
Do we still want to compete with Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil price war knowing that we will never have a chance to win?
Do we still want to build new pipelines diverting billions of dollars from the real investment in the future?
Do we, Canada, want to remain backward, resource-oriented and resource-dependent economy instead of leading the technological progress? 

Wake up, Canada!

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Tens of Thousands are without power - AMES Could Help





'Grand Bahama right now is dead'

Tens of thousands in Atlantic Canada still in the dark after Hurricane Dorian

As hurricane Dorian swept across the Bahamas, Florida and Nova Scotia I can't not to think that if there was an autonomous energy source in a container  - the source which would not depend on the grid nor on the fuel supply, people would have power and heat hours after the disaster instead of days and weeks, possibly even without losing it. This is Autonomous Mobile Energy Station (AMES), developed by Ascent Systems Technologies, British Columbia, Canada.



A self-contained module, using only sun and air to generate energy and store it in the built-in energy storage, would survive  the storm and be ready to deliver energy on demand. A number of modules deployed in advance in the areas prone to natural disasters, would help communities survive. Such a module could be also brought to any place in the case of emergency, rapidly deployed and supply heat and power for medical personnel providing aid to victims and provide relief to people.